20 03 22
Daniele Langiu daniele.langiu@gmail.com
Fabio Sdogati sdogati@mip.polimi.it
[This is the English Version of our paper in Italian posted yesterday, March 21st]
Time passes at a horrible speed, in the conditions in which we live. While up to three weeks ago we had very little literature on the relationship between the pandemic and the outlook for economic activity, and no estimates for the size of the possible effects, now articles, forecasts, interviews, reports multiply by the hour, and it has become difficult to follow properly what it is written, or said. And the topic is always, or almost, that of economic forecasts.
In a piece of March 4, one of us wrote that, in the absence of data and reliable forecasts, it would be better to deal with the classification of the types of profile of the reaction of economic activity to the virus shock, and then start reasoning to sift through different hypotheses. At that time, reasons were advanced in support of a pessimistic view of the evolution of the crisis. Today we discuss the research conducted, or the positions expressed, by some economists who offer support for our hypothesis.
Continue reading “Covid-19: Now More Than Ever, European Union”